The MVP race continues to heat up as the NFL season winds down. Both frontrunners, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson put an MVP-type performance on the field Sunday, but which one has the current lead, and who will win the award?

Much like the Heisman award ceremony this weekend there is no wrong answer to the question of who should win MVP this year, but let’s pitch the argument for both sides.

The Case for Lamar Jackson:

The case for Lamar Jackson is cut and dry, by the numbers: look at the stats.  Coming off his second MVP season in 2023, Jackson has not only been able to replicate his personal success but reach a whole new level.

Jackson is having a career season no matter which way you slice it, his 34 passing touchdowns are already a career-high as well as his completion percentage (68.1%), his interceptions (3), and his quarterback rating (120.7).  Jackson also is well on pace to shatter his yardage mark which he set in an MVP campaign last season at 3,678.  Already this season through 14 games Jackson has 3,580. 

Comparing his numbers to other quarterbacks this season this is where he ranks:
Yards: 3,580 (5th)

Passing Touchdowns: 34 (2nd)

Total Touchdowns: 37 (T-1st)

Interceptions: 3 (T-2nd)

QB Rating:120.7: (1st)

From just a numbers standpoint as a passer, he qualifies as a true MVP candidate and the fact that current odds have him at a distant second place at +1400 odds is mind-boggling to me.

There are a few reasons why he is considered such a big underdog though.  For one voter fatigue is a real thing.  In the case of Jackson, it comes in the form of being the reigning MVP, there have only ever been six cases of back-to-back winners, the last one being Aaron Rodgers in 2020-21. 

On top of that, while Jackson has two MVPs to his name Josh Allen has zero.  With the MVP award storyline will always be a part of it and Jackson does not have the story on his side this season.

The third reason Jackson is such a massive underdog right now is that his team isn’t winning enough games.  If the MVP was a purely stats-driven award, Dak Prescott would have won last season, and Joe Burrow would be the frontrunner this year.  The reason guys like that don’t get consideration is because of a lack of team success.  Historically 90% of all MVPs were on a team that won their division.  The Ravens currently sit at 9-5, one game back of the Pittsburgh Steelers for the division lead. 

The Ravens and the Steelers match up next week for the top spot in the AFC East.  If the Ravens can take the division crown from the Steelers, the conversation becomes a whole lot more interesting.

Comparing the two top dogs head-to-head we saw the Ravens destroy the Bills in week 4 of the NFL season 35-10.  When the stats are put up next to each other Jackson has the lead in every major passing and rushing category aside from rushing touchdowns. 

There are factors working against a repeat victory for Jackson, but there is still a great case to make after 15 weeks of play in the NFL.

The Case for Josh Allen:

Josh Allen exits week 15 with all the momentum in the world.  The current odds-on favorite for his first-ever NFL MVP award with odds as high as -700 in some books. 

What is impossible to ignore about Allen is his performances of late.  In the last two weeks of play, Allen has played at a never-before-seen level in the history of the NFL.  In week 14 against the Los Angeles Rams, Allen put up the single greatest statistical performance by any quarterback ever setting a new watermark in terms of fantasy points.  Finishing the game with six total touchdowns, (three through the air, three on the ground).

Allen followed up his performance in week 15 with one that rivaled his history-making game the week prior.  Allen finished week 15 with 430 total scrimmage yards and four more touchdowns.  That’s 10 touchdowns over the last two games accounting for 70 of his team’s 90 points in that stretch.

It is not just this recent couple of games that put Allen in the driver’s seat for the MVP award.  On the year Allen has compiled a healthy stat line of 3,395 yards, 37 total touchdowns to just five interceptions, and a passer rating of over 100 at 101.9. 

Allen has always been an incredible quarterback but what has been the most impressive this year is his lack of turnovers.  Allen through 14 games has just 5 total turnovers and no fumbles despite averaging nearly seven carries a game.

When comparing Josh Allen to the other NFL quarterbacks here is how he stands:

Yards: 3,395 (8th)
Passing Touchdowns: 25 (6th)

Total Touchdowns: 37 (T-1st)

Interceptions: 5 (T-3rd)
QB Rating: 101.9 (7th)

Allen’s raw numbers don’t jump out of the screen as much as Jackson’s do but top 10 in every major category is nothing to scoff at especially when considering the health of his top weapons.  Everyone that Allen has thrown the ball to has missed at least one game due to injury with the team’s second and third leading receivers missing five and four games respectively.

Allen has done everything that could have been asked of him and more, being the first team to clinch their division doing so before Thanksgiving.  In a year that saw so much talent depart from Buffalo, including superstar wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Allen has done an incredible job keeping the boat steady on a Super Bowl potential course.

Who Should Win The MVP?

Both Allen and Jackson have incredible cases for the MVP award this season, they both deserve the award for what they have accomplished.  Unfortunately for one of them, there can only be one winner. 

My MVP after 15 weeks of NFL football is Lamar Jackson.

While stats may not be able to tell the full story, Jackson has been the more consistent quarterback this season.  Allen may have the highs, but his lows were brutal.  A 9-30 performance against the Texans in week 5, a sloppy two interception, zero touchdown game against the Colts are stuck in my mind.

There is still time to change, if Allen continues playing at the superhuman level he has been for the last two weeks the award is his.  That level is near impossible to keep up though and for my money, this race is as neck and neck as any MVP race has been in a very long time.