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The college football season ended the same way it started, a walk-off field goal to upset a top-ten team. Now, the committee has made its decisions and the field is set. After 15 weeks of battle, we finally have a bracket to break down and parse through.
The Bracket:
BYES:
1. Oregon (Big 10 Champ)
We saw a conference breakdown led by the Big 10 with four teams making the tournament, followed by the SEC with three, the ACC with two, and the Mountain West, Big 12, and non-conference all having one team in the playoff.
The biggest decision the playoff committee had to make was between the SMU Mustangs and the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Mustangs lost on a walk-off, 56-yard field goal after clawing back from down 17 multiple times in the game, while the Crimson Tide had the week off.
They ultimately decided to go with SMU. This was undoubtedly the right decision, not only for this year but for the future of college football. The decision to go with SMU shows that making a conference championship game means something.
This still does not come without its share of consequences. There will be arguments about the strength of schedule, quality losses and wins, and more, but for now, let’s break down the matchups for the first-ever 12-team college football playoffs.
5. Texas (11-2) vs 12. Clemson (10-3) (winner to play 4. Arizona State)
Texas is hosting a playoff game after a disappointing effort in the SEC title game against Georgia. They host Clemson who parlayed a couple of lucky breaks into a playoff berth. They get the final automatic bid after beating SMU 34-31 on a walk-off field goal.
Both Texas and Clemson have struggled against top-tier opponents, both losing to Georgia (Texas twice) as well as Clemson having two losses to top 30 teams in Louisville and South Carolina.
Credit where credit is due though, these teams took care of business, beating the teams they should leading them to the playoff. Now they have to show they can hang with the top contenders in the sport. The difference in this game is going to be the QB play of Quinn Ewers.
We have seen Ewers, especially in the two games facing Georgia, struggle to read the field and handle pressure. Clemson is a similarly physical team which could cause problems, but if Ewers can play like he did pre-injury they should be able to beat Clemson.
6. Penn State (11-2) vs 11. SMU (11-2) (winner to play 3. Boise State)
The 6/11 spot in the bracket might be the most coveted spot with how the teams line up. Facing Boise State in the quarterfinals is not a cakewalk, but it is certainly easier than the other teams with a bye.
Both SMU and Penn State coming off one-possession losses in their respective conference title games, looking for a rebound performance. The big storyline in this one is centering around Penn State head coach James Franklin.
Franklin has the narrative of being unable to win big games. We saw it twice this year against Oregon and Ohio State. Questions still linger about his ability to get his teams ready for the big moment, in his career Franklin has a 3-19 record vs top 10 ranked opponents.
SMU has made it all the way to the top in their first-ever year in the ACC. Winning the conference in the regular season and clinching a playoff spot in the new format. This is the beginning of what could be a very dangerous run for SMU, with the addition of NIL the famously deep-pocketed donors of SMU could change the sport of college football for a long time.
In this game though it’s going to come down to if SMU can handle the physicality of Penn State. In the ACC championship game against Clemson SMU struggled early with the more physical team, falling to a 17-point hole multiple times throughout the game.
I think a strong fourth quarter out of the Mustangs shows they have learned and grown from that experience and should take out Penn State in the first upset of the new college football playoff system.
7. Notre Dame (11-1) vs 10. Indiana (11-1) (winner to play 2. Georgia)
An in-state matchup between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish is set up for the first round of the college football playoffs. Indiana enters the tournament amidst its best season in program history behind the hire of former James Madison University head coach Curt Cignetti.
This will renew a rivalry that was dormant for 33 years. Notre Dame has taken 23 of 29 games played between the programs including six straight with Indiana’s last victory coming in 1950.
Notre Dame is powered by the running game, ranking 10th in the nation averaging 224 yards per game. The key is star running back Jeremiyah Love leading the attack and dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard adding an extra threat for defenses to deal with.
Indiana on the other hand leads the nation in rush defense allowing just 70 rush yards per game. This is going to be a matchup of strength versus strength, and I think Indiana despite being bullied by Ohio State earlier in the year should be able to win a tight one in South Bend.
8. Ohio State (10-2) vs 9. Tennessee (10-2) (winner to play 1. Oregon)
The final first-round matchup and maybe the best sees Tennessee traveling to Ohio State to take on the Buckeyes. Both Tennessee and Ohio State boast some of the best scoring defenses in the nation ranking fourth and first respectively.
This game is going to come down to which of the two quarterbacks, Nico Iamaleava or Will Howard plays the cleanest football. Iamaleava has turned up his performances of late throwing four touchdowns in back-to-back contests.
Iamaleava has been playing better but Tennessee is a run-first offense behind one of the best running backs in the country in Dylan Sampson whose 1,485 yards puts him at eighth in the nation.
This will be a tough, hard-fought, physical football game and I think Ohio State will find a way to come out with a close victory setting up a rematch with the Oregon Ducks.
