The AFC Guide to the Playoffs

By Matt Quinn

The holidays are over and as we transition to January football, the playoff picture is almost all the way in focus. In the AFC, all but one spot is secured, with seeding still working itself out between the qualifying teams. It seems as though it is a three team race in the AFC, with the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens, looking to be the odds on favorites to make some noise in the AFC playoffs after comfortable wins in week 17. We’ll go from top to bottom to analyze each team’s journey here and there overall chances to raise the Lombardi trophy in February.

#1 Seed- Kansas City Chiefs: 15-1

Throughout this entire season, the Chiefs looked almost human, with them getting some favorable bounces and calls here and there, while also not playing the type of football we’re so used to seeing from this Chiefs team. After a Christmas Day beatdown of the free-falling Steelers (more on that later), the Chiefs are beginning to look like a team that is hungry for a three-peat.  Patrick Mahomes has rounded into form and the offense has finally found its groove. The addition of WR Hollywood Brown, the emergence of Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce being Travis Kelce, this team is peaking at the right time, which is an incredibly scary thought for the rest of the NFL. The defense is also playing incredibly well. Despite missing stud defensive lineman Chris Jones on Christmas, the Chiefs were still able to sack Russell Wilson five times and take away the ball twice against the Steelers. With this team playing like this, a three-peat is seeming more and more likely for the Chiefs.

#2 Seed- Buffalo Bills: 13-3

The Buffalo Bills are one of two teams in this year’s playoff tournament that nobody really cares what they did in the regular season. What I mean by that is the Bills have proven they can beat the Chiefs in the regular season and also dominate many other teams. It’s when they get to the postseason that all of the bad mojo tends to find its way to Buffalo. For as well as Josh Allen has played this year, it will all be for nothing if they are ousted in the playoffs again. This is supposed to be the year that the Bills finally get over the hump and take down the champs on their way to their first ever Super Bowl title. Until that happens, they can go undefeated in the regular season and it still won’t matter if they can’t get it done in the playoffs. The defense is a concern, as they allowed 89 points in two games back in Week 14 and 15. Sure they shut down the Jets yesterday, but who hasn’t done that this year. If they can limit the defensive mistakes, they will be tough to beat come playoff time.

#3 Seed- Baltimore Ravens: 11-5

The Ravens may not have officially locked up the three spot just yet, but with the way they are playing, they should easily be able to do just that on Saturday against the hapless Browns in Baltimore. Once the division is locked up, the Ravens will get at least one home game before likely having to travel to Kansas City or Buffalo for the divisional round. Lamar Jackson has been playing his best football of his career this year and though many people, myself included, thought the MVP was Josh Allen’s to lose, it’s getting increasingly harder to argue with Jackson’s case for a third MVP award. With the defense improving since Dean Pees has returned to the coaching staff, and Derrick Henry running over everyone, it’s going to be really difficult to knock off this team come January.

#4 Seed- Houston Texans: 9-7

This has been a challenging year for Houston. Coming into the season with a bigger target on their back because of the success from a year ago, they haven’t been able to reach that same level this year. They have been bitten pretty hard by the injury bug on offense, losing Nico Collins for a few weeks earlier in the year, then losing Stefon Diggs for the year after that before ultimately losing star young receiver Tank Dell to an absolutely devastating knee injury that may keep him out until 2026. Dell, who was shot earlier this year and worked his way back after an injury last year, was playing well but had just about every ligament in his knee torn in that game against the Chiefs in week 16. C.J. Stroud has regressed this year also. Gone are the big plays that Stroud was so well-known for last year and the turnovers have increased also. Houston does have the AFC South locked up already so they do have a home playoff game for the second straight season, but going far in the playoffs seems pretty unlikely this year.

#5 Seed- Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6

Speaking of not going far in the playoffs, here are the Steelers. Where to start with this team. Coming into a three game stretch from week 15-17, the Steelers were sitting at 10-3, two full games ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North. Most people didn’t think they would get out of that stretch with even one win, let alone three. The problem isn’t that they lost to the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs. They are three of the best teams in the league when healthy. The problem is how it went down. The offense struggled consistently without George Pickens but the most concerning thing is that highest paid defense in the NFL. They have been outscored 90-40 in those three games, the defense has continually left opposing receivers wide open, Russell Wilson is turning the ball over at the worst times, and the coaching has been abysmal at best. The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game in seven years and this year might be the worst collapse of Tomlin’s tenure. For all the love that Tomlin gets in the national media for being “witty” with all his “Tomlinisms”, he has failed to produce results yet again despite the front office bringing in a lot of new talent to help get them over that hump. If they fail to win a playoff game again this year, serious changes need to take place, from the top to the bottom. 

#6 Seed- Los Angeles Chargers: 10-6

The Chargers have made it to the playoffs under first year coach Jim Harbaugh. Known for turning programs around like he did at Michigan and before that San Francisco, he’s done it again in LA. They’ve had some ups and downs this year but have come on strong lately and have secured the sixth seed in the playoffs. Harbaugh’s identity for this team is of a tough, physical team that can run the ball well and play good defense. They will most likely travel to Baltimore for the first round and though that is a tough matchup, they played the Ravens close earlier this year and you never know what can happen in the playoffs if you play well on defense and can control the ball. Having a solid young QB like Justin Herbert certainly helps. They may not win a Super Bowl this year, but they will by no means be an easy out in the playoffs this year.

In the Hunt for the 7th Seed:

Denver Broncos- 9-7

The Broncos lost a heart breaker in Cincinnati to a surging Bengals team on Saturday night in overtime. Bo Nix has played well for the most part, but there have been too many mistakes at costly times. They need to clean it up on both sides of the ball and hope the Chiefs rest starters in Week 18 to have a legitimate chance to get into the playoffs with a win.

Miami Dolphins- 8-8

The Dolphins are clinging to their playoff lives right now. Tua hasn’t been great and they need to win in Week 18 and get some help in order to get in.  It’s a longshot right now, but crazier things have happened in the last week of the season in years past.

Cincinnati Bengals- 8-8

The Bengals are possibly the scariest team amongst these three on the bubble. Joe Burrow has just been absolutely incredible this year and if they make the playoffs, He may have a legit shot to win MVP, if not then Comeback Player of the Year. The defense is still a problem but with Burrow playing at this high a level, anything is possible. They have a suddenly winnable game against the Steelers on Saturday night and if they get a loss by the Broncos and Dolphins, all they have to do is win and they’re in. If this team gets in, look out.